Justify, ridden by Jockey Mike Smith, continued to demonstrate flawless form by remaining unbeaten to win the 2018 Kentucky Derby (the 144th time the race has been run) on 5th March at Churchill Downs. The first horse since 1882 to win  without running as a two year old added his 4th win, by holding onto a little over a two length lead and taking the derby title on a rain saturated course.

 

This was justify’s 4th win now, starting with a classy win on February 18th of this year at Santa Anita Park , and including a Grade I Santa Anita Derby win. These preparation races clearly got him eactly where he needed to be and he executed to perfection on the day. Bred in Kentucky by John D. Gunther, also the breeder of Vino Rosso, the hrse has sold in 2016 for $500,000. After a short but impressive run of form he was favouite going into the Derby, though with several grade I winners in the mix ( Good Magic, Mendelssohn  etc), it was far from a formality.

 

During the race Promises Fulfilled gave Justify a run for his money for a time, but ultimately didn’t have enough, and Justify came home  first, completing the 1 ¼ mile course in 2:04.20.  Aidan O’Brien – winner of the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday, was hoping to win on the aforementioned Mendelssohn , who would’ve been the first European-based horse to do so. Sadly it wasn’t to be and he finished 20th out of 20.

 

Justify was 5/2 favourite. Good Magic came home in second place, and Audible third.

 

 

 

 

1. Cardsharp 100/1

 

Group 2 winner over 6 furlongs at Newmarket last July, but subsequent beaten on both attempts in Group 1 company. Eased when beaten in a Group 3 contest over 7 furlongs at Deauville on reappearance last month but, untried over a mile, would be a shock winner here.

 

 

2. Elarqam 5/1

 

Unbeaten Frankel colt who looked as if a mile was easily within his compass when beating Tip Two Win by 2¼ lengths in Group 3 contest over 7 furlongs at Newmarket last September. Both wins came on good to soft going, so needs to prove his effectiveness on faster ground, but trainer Mark Johnston has expressed faith in his ability.

 

 

3. Expert Eye 9/1

 

Looked a potential world-beater when impressively winning a Group 2 contest over 7 furlongs at Goodwood last August, but finished lame when last of nine in the Dewhurst Stakes on his only subsequent outing. Beaten three-quarters of length by James Garfield, after pulling hard, in the Greenham Stakes on his reappearance and looks vulnerable once again.

 

 

4. Gustav Klimt 5/2

 

Overcame trouble in running to beat Nebo by a head in the Superlative Stakes last July and, although missing the rest of the season through injury, proved his well-being by winning a four-runner Listed race at Leopardstown three weeks ago. Must be feared, but is a very short price based on what he’s actually achieved on the racecourse.

 

 

5. Headway 33/1

 

Beaten a head by Rajasinghe in the Coventry Stakes last summer and demonstrated an impressive turn of foot when winning a Listed race over 7 furlongs on his reappearance at Lingfield in March. Plenty to find on official figures, though, and probably flying a bit too high.

 

 

6. James Garfield 22/1

 

Beaten 5½ lengths by Expert Eye in the Vintage Stakes last August, but reversed that form, to the tune of 6½ lengths, when winning the Greenham Stakes last month. Finished 1½ lengths behind Masar in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last November, though, on his first attempt at a mile, and has work to do to beat that rival.

 

 

7. Masar 5/1

 

Not beaten far when third to 1,000 Guineas favourite Happily in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last October and impressive when winning the Craven Stakes, over course and distance, on his reappearance last month. Arguably has the best credentials of any of these and trainer Charlie Appleby, who’s in cracking form, is bullish about his chances.

 

 

8. Murillo 50/1

 

Smart Pattern race form – including a close third behind Rajasinghe and Headway in the Coventry Stakes – over 6 furlongs last summer, but not seen since last July. Has too many questions to answer to be seriously considered for win purposes, but could belie generous odds by running well.

 

 

9. Nebo 66/1

 

Only beaten a head by Gustav Klimpt, who was hampered, in the Superlative Stakes last July, but looks fully exposed as below the standard required to win this.

 

 

10. Raid 33/1

 

Has only a 6-furlong Doncaster maiden win to his name, but wasn’t beat far by James Garfield and company in the Greenham Stakes on just his second start and is the real dark ‘un in the field. His sire, Havana Gold, has his first three-year-olds this year, by he’s bred to stay a mile and, in fact, the way he ran at Newbury suggested an extra furlong would be in his favour.

 

 

11. Rajasinghe 50/1

 

Won the Coventry Stakes and ran respectably when third behind Cardsharp in the July Stakes last summer, but appeared beaten on merit in the Middle Park Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Hard to enthuse about his chances of a revival at this level.

 

 

12. Roaring Lion 16/1

 

Odds-on favourite for the Craven Stakes, but beaten into a cocked hat by Masar and hard to fancy if that form is reliable. He was, of course, returning from a 173-day break since failing by a neck to withstand the challenge of Saxon Warrior in the Racing Post Trophy, and sweated up on the day, so he’s not one to dismiss out of hand. Trainer John Gosden was initially cool on the idea of running here and the Kitten’s Joy colt may be better over further.

 

 

13. Saxon Warrior 5/1

 

Unbeaten Racing Post Trophy winner, described by jockey Donnacha O’Brien as “a bit special”. A line through Roaring Lion, which suggests he has plenty to find with Masar, may be misleading; he’s yet to win on ground faster than yielding but, as proven Group 1 winner over a mile, he looks a danger to all.

 

 

14. Tip Two Win 33/1

 

Twice a winner at Doha in Qatar in December and February but, based on his domestic form as a juvenile, looks outclassed and has plenty of work to do to reverse the form with Elarqam on their running in the Tattersalls Stakes last September.

 

 

Conclusion

 

 

Aidan O’Brien clearly holds a strong hand, with marginal preference for Saxon Warrior over Gustav Klimt, but the eclipse of Racing Post Trophy runner-up, Roaring Lion, in the Craven Stakes points towards Masar as the most likely winner. Elaqarm falls into the “could be anything” category and merits respect, while the unexposed Raid is a lively outsider for anyone who fancies an each-way punt at long odds.

 

 

Selection: Newmarket 3.35 Masar to win (5/1 with Ladbrokes, Betfred and Totesport)

 

Well they certainly can do but….